Monthly Archives: July 2009

The InTrade prices / probabilities are now part of the Wall Street Journal narrative.

Posted on July 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Here, instance about Ben Benrnanke. The Intrade online wagering Web site puts 60% odds on reappointment. Ben Bernanke @ InTrade

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Is weather betting legal if you bundle it with auto leasing?

Posted on July 26, 2009 by Eric Zitzewitz

Pride Motors, a Boston area car dealer, is advertising the following special: Lease a car before August 26, and if it’s above 96 degrees at Boston Logan Airport on Labor Day, they will make your first 12 lease payments for … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Economics, Gambling, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Wiser Than The Stock Market — NOT

Posted on July 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Ben Shannon (alias “Jesse Livermore”, who blogs at “Wiser Than The Crowd”) claims on his blog to have an uncanny ability at forecasting the future and profiting from it, whether it is speculating on InTrade’s prediction markets or on the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Collective Intelligence, NetFlix Prize Edition = one million dollars… for the smartest “crowd”

Posted on July 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

NetFlix Prize – Leaderboard One million US dollars to the winner. “The Ensemble” is now ahead of the race… The crowd is indeed wiser than the individual. The 10% barrier once seemed distant and insurmountable. But when the contest’s “last … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Joe The Plumber is more useful to society than Robin Hanson or Tyler Cowen or any other economist.

Posted on July 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Joe The Plumber: The politicians in Washington are spending trillions of dollars of our money. When are Americans going to stand up and say enough is enough? Instead of spending more of our money, they should cut back like ordinary … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets: Sticking to the letter of the contract VERSUS Interpreting intent

Posted on July 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Chris Hibbert (of Zocalo): I disagree, Chris. Much experience on FX has shown that interesting questions (those that aren’t routine repetitions of previous questions) often result in realities that diverge from the obvious expectations of nearly everyone involved in describing … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Is it right to use children in online gambling promotion?

Posted on July 25, 2009 by Caruso

The Association of Professional Casino Webmasters, or “APCW”, produces a twice-weekly promotional video which reports on news matters relevant to the online gambling industry – see their Perspectives Weekly page on You Tube. Have a look at the July 17th … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Ethics, Gambling, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Software for prediction markets

Posted on July 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Software for prediction markets @ Midas Oracle – Software for prediction markets @ CFM I have updated the listings. The only thing I note is the disappearance of HSX Virtual Markets (Hollywood Stock Exchange). This does not come as … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets are questions where the right answers pay back.

Posted on July 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets are questions where the right answers pay back. I like that. George Tziralis is brilliant. I have always said that that guy is brilliant.

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I think Intrade should always follow the letter of the contract as closely as possible.

Posted on July 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That is Ben Shannon on InTrade’s prediction markets. I beg to differ. I believe that event derivative contracts should always stick to the truth —you can sense the nuance if you remember the 2006 North-Korea Missile prediction market.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments