Andrew Gelman is the most wonderful forecasting expert on Earth. He is great. He is a giant. I like a lot of what he has been retorting to Robin Hanson. However, Andrew Gelman didn’t answer the Robin Hanson challenge, that is, talking about whether some simpler, meta or collective methods of forecasting would be more accurate (in the long term) that the traditional forecasting methods that Andrew Gelman is teaching to his students. Question unanswered.
Someone else will answer it.
ADDENDUM: Jason Ruspini has entered the fray.
“In the long term” is a tough sell nowadays.