Robin Hanson to Andrew Gelman: You are a smart prof, but my forecasting methods are better —which means, overall, that I am smarter than you.

Robin Hanson:

1. Since I’ve granted that my story is contrary to what people usually say and assume, saying “I assume” on funding just isn’t much of a contrary argument.  “My impression” on students isn’t much better.
2. Your funding patrons may like to see studies using your methods not because they predict better but because they and you are more prestigious.  Could you tell the difference?
3. I suspect most of your students never much use the methods they learn from you later.  Some no doubt do use them.
4. Employers may want to hire your students to use your methods not because those methods predict better because they are more prestigious, and people who can master them are just better overall.
5. Last week I mentioned that fancy stat forecasts are consistently beat by simple moving averages; have you done field tests to see how well your students actually do using your methods, compared with simpler methods?