Dawn Tevekelian Keller (formerly at Best Buy) does not write for Robin Hanson et al.:
This blog is not geared toward the existing Prediction Market intelligentsia. While I would be honored to have fellow enthusiasts read and critique this blog, I’m not writing this for them, specifically.
I’m writing for a general business audience, decision makers in particular. The discussion will be geared toward people who may have never heard of Prediction Markets, may be minimally aware and curious, may be knowledgeable but still skeptical, or who may be interested but need help engaging others within their organization.
Dawn Tevekelian Keller’s goal is to evangelize enterprise prediction markets:
This simple but powerful truth is why Prediction Markets could potentially change the course of events for Boeing and its Dreamliner jet. By enabling the company to swiftly and accurately tap its own collective knowledge, [prediction] markets create an intelligence engine with infinite application and shelf life.
All this is gentle, she capitalizes “Prediction Markets” in her posts to make it more respectable, but where is the scientific evidence? The name of her blog “the answer is in the crowd” suggests that she believes that collective forecasting brings a giant-size added accuracy, which is not the case, in fact. People who evangelizes collective intelligence should make modest and humble claims.
