Monthly Archives: June 2009

Type “GE Imagination Market” in Google, and you’ll see prediction market journalism, *first* —and, after that, the spin done by the companies in question.

Posted in Midas Oracle Statistics, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Eric Zitzewitz wanna bet with Brad DeLong.

Brad DeLong bended Eric Zitzewitz’s ear, and now our Dartmouth padawan wants a bet: Brad, The post you refer to is a follow up post to a post in March that does a similar analysis about the S&P 500. http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/quantifying-the-nightmare-scenarios/ … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Economics, Finance, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

BetFair and Yahoo! are not part of the World Wide Web Consortium — but Google is in.

World Wide Web Consortium — Members If my memory is correct, BetFair was a member of 3W, years ago. (Niall?)

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, The Internet | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Is General Electric Imagination Market a joke?

Emile Servan-Schreiber bends David Perry’s ear. Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures): From: Emile Servan-Schreiber Date: Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:45:43 +0200 Subject: Re: GE Imagination Market License That’s pretty funny, considering that the creator of the GE Imagination Market herself concludes … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Hunch = Collective intelligence tool for decision-making

Hunch Powered by MIT ideas — Much more useful than Robin Hanson’s decision-aid markets. Great usability. I registered and tested it. They are onto something. Besides NetFlix, have you ever heard of other collective intelligence tool of this kind? Leave … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Psychology | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The “efficient markets” hypothesis is dead.

An interesting piece in this morning’s FT by Gillian Tett. The Chartered Financial Analyst Institute, which for many years had taught the so-called “efficient markets” hypothesis to thousands of students, asked its members for the first time if they trusted … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Finance | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

What Jed Christiansen should avoid at Cambridge University

Jesus, Mary, Joseph. – bikini-clad students struggling to stand up and vomiting at midday on a Sunday afternoon; – jelly-wrestling contest; – lots of them were vomiting; – drinking alcohol free drinks through a fish smeared in marmite and licking … Continue reading

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Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do. Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Yahoo! Confab Kaput

Yahoo! Confab: Sorry, the page you requested was not found. Please check the URL for proper spelling and capitalization. If you’re having trouble locating a destination on Yahoo!, try visiting the Yahoo! home page or look through a list of … Continue reading

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At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets.

Panos Ipeirotis: [...] Now, do we need to call them *prediction* markets? I would agree that there is no real reason for that… All markets have information aggregation characteristics and sometimes it is annoying to see how much we reinvent … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged , , | Leave a comment