Monthly Archives: June 2009

Google Squared is a big piece of crap.

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Try “prediction markets” and “collective forecasting”. Gimme Wolfram instead. Technologizer: [Wolfram] Alpha, while imperfect, is ready to do all sorts of useful things right now. Squared feels more like the initial proof of concept for something that may take years … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

Prediction Markets for Valuing Private Companies

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Daniel Horowitz

Everyone seems to have an opinion on the future prospects of Facebook and Twitter. Some of us even feel strongly enough to want to bet on it. Unfortunately, the companies are privately held, and unavailable to be bet on in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

BetFair has made a voluntary contribution to the Levy Board.

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair has made a voluntary contribution to the Levy Board.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

BetFair’s Memoranda of Understanding benefits both bettors and sports.

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair’s Memoranda of Understanding benefits both bettors and sports. The investigative process follows 7 steps: Step 1: An activity concern is noted Step 2: A preview is conducted to determine if there is more reason for investigation Step 3: Preliminary … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What do prediction markets say about unemployment and swine flu in Australia?

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“Unfortunately, we don’t know, because such markets do not currently exist.” – Andrew Leigh

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

A new glimpse into the revamped Overcoming Bias

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: Chris, Eliezer was not “purged.” He requested to have his old posts moved to Less Wrong. No one else has made any similar request. Eliezer was not “expelled”; he choose to move in order to build a community … Continue reading →

Posted in Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Are good blogs driven by author personalities or by well drilled topics?

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers has escaped the Overcoming Bias purge, it seems. Justin Wolfers’s 4 posts (published in 2007) remain archived on what is now Robin Hanson’s QUOTE personal blog UNQUOTE. By contrast, Eliezer Yudkowsky’s posts written for Overcoming Bias now redirect … Continue reading →

Posted in Journalism, Prediction Journalism, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

What makes a good blog, and how much can you value a popular blog?

Posted on June 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

So, how does our Master Of All Universes justify his expelling of his co-bloggers? Overcoming Bias began in November ‘06 as a group blog on the general theme of how to move our beliefs closer to reality, in the face … Continue reading →

Posted in Journalism, Prediction Journalism, Psychology | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Vernon Smith’s publisher

Posted on June 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Author House Self-publishing FAQ

Posted in Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are a zero-sum game.

Posted on June 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Did you lose money betting on InTrade, lately? Well, your money ended up in the pocket of that guy: UPDATE: There was nothing about “hating the game” in my post. It was just a reference to the “sheep and wolves” … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Money | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment