Monthly Archives: June 2009

So much for Prof Panos and his data religion

Posted on June 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

People answer bullshit when polled by Prof Panos and other stats collectors.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The British prime minister will leave office this month —dixit the BetFair traders.

Posted on June 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Gordon Brown to leave office before the end of June 2009: Addendum: To the despair of both Prof Panos and Wiser Than The Crowd, here is a link back to the recent “failures” of the prediction markets.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why Google don’t want to hire research scientist David Pennock

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Mercury News: A recruiter who left Google last year says that the company [= Google] had maintained a “do not touch” list of companies including Genentech and Yahoo, whose employees were not to be wooed to the Internet search giant. … Continue reading →

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Great software packages

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have updated: – the list of open-source software packages (for Windows, Macintosh and Linux); – the list of software packages for Macintosh. In addition, you can find here some great websites. P.S.: The software for prediction markets… here. P.P.S.: … Continue reading →

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Global Foresight

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Speaking of networking, here is an interesting LinkedIn group: Global Foresight. Robin Hanson (well known to be a very picky guy) is a member, so it can’t be bad. – Our good friend Mike Linksvayer, too, I just see. GlobalForesight.org … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Midas Oracle Network, Resources - References | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Our prediction market community is strong because our members are open.

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

We welcome Chad Rigetti. Unlike Wiser Than The Crowd, who insists to stay in obscurity (what is he hidding?), Chad Rigetti is in the open. Do join our LinkedIn group on prediction markets, folks. And get to network with prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in Midas Oracle Network, People | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Wiser than the IRS?

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

He did not say, “I pay my taxes in the U.S.“:

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Sheep and Wolves

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

My post re-publishing the InTrade check received by Wiser Than The Crowd has been mis-interpreted by him. There was nothing about “hating the game” in my post. It was just a reference to the “sheep and wolves” concept floated by … Continue reading →

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Were prediction markets useless during the H1N1 breakout?

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Lance Fortnow: Might this be an instance where prediction markets greatly out-performed the experts? In short, no. There were relevant markets but two big problems: No one thought to create a market for the number of flu cases over a … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

There are not enough big active traders on InTrade.

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Wiser Than The Crowd: [...] Based on my Intrade blog, the Intrade forum, and emails and PMs I’ve received, I’d estimate the number of sharp traders with more than $10,000 to trade is in the single digits. Many of them … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment