Monthly Archives: June 2009

HubDub on CNN — 30 seconds into

HubDub

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

InTrade’s fifth Beatle talks (very fast) about the financial markets.

Patrick Young (who co-founded InTrade) wraps up a conference on financial markets. Wow. What a brain. Watch the video.

Posted in Finance | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.

Mike Linksvayer: Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism, X Groups | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

In futarchy, the decisions are coercive.

And that makes some people uncomfortable. The debate on Robin Hanson’s idea futures (prediction markets, decision-aid markets, decision markets, futarchy, etc.) is spreading from Overcoming Bias to other blogs. Here is Robin Hanson: Nick, I never said there are prediction … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ROBIN HANSON HAS RENOUNCED TO RULE THE UNIVERSE VIA PREDICTION MARKETS.

Robin Hanson: I’m not proposing to implement futarchy full stop one day; I’m proposing to run a series of increasingly large trials. That would give you the data you want. Wow, modesty and humility. Mark the day.

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Morons and Non-Morons — Sheep and Wolves

Required reading for “Wiser Than The Crowd”, who mis-understood one of my previous posts (kids, today): Morons and non-morons, which I often call sheep and wolves, are not distributed independently across topics. The wolves are consistently attracted to the sheep, … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

*Years* later, the BetFair blogs are still *not* taking off.

- Google PageRank of Betting @ BetFair: 5 / 10. – Google PageRank of BetFair Predicts: 4 / 10. – Number of feed subscribers at Google Reader for Betting @ BetFair: 29. – Number of feed subscribers at Google Reader … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

300 happy people… minus one imbecile

I forgot to tell you that, yesterday, we welcomed our 300th member in the LinkedIn group on prediction markets. We are the #1 networking group in the world on the topic of prediction markets (and collecting forecasting ). Wow. The … Continue reading

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration, Midas Oracle Network | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

“Collective Forecasting”… becomes officially our second industry keyword starting today —I decreeted that after a good slurp of Bordeaux wine.

In homage to our good doctor Robin Hanson (I am too good, I know), I let the term “collective forecasting” appear in the description of the LinkedIn group on prediction markets: This group is for anybody who have a strong … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Midas Oracle Network, Search Engine Optimization | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

InTrade daily prediction market wrapup

Video by our good friend, Andrew Goldberg —who, unlike Wiser Than The Crowd, is in the open. Tell me in the comments whether his video has value for you. If yes, then I might re-publish it daily. Or let Andrew … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , | 3 Comments