Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Is General Electric Imagination Market a joke?

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Emile Servan-Schreiber bends David Perry’s ear.

Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures):

From: Emile Servan-Schreiber
Date: Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:45:43 +0200
Subject: Re: GE Imagination Market License

That’s pretty funny, considering that the creator of the GE Imagination Market herself concludes in several published papers that “using markets to rank ideas may be no better than other methods of idea ranking,” (1) and that “a survey of market participants yielded mixed results regarding the market’s effectiveness at ranking ideas.” (2) Elsewhere, on [General Electric]’s own blog, one of those participants details at length the conceptual and practical incoherence of such self-referential “preference markets”. (3)

(1) http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1265501
(2) http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ubpl/jpm/2009/00000003/00000001/art00004
(3) http://www.grcblog.com/?p=378

Previously: General Electric’s internal betting exchange: The Imagination Market

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