I am publishing an update, because things have changed since last time. (Yes, “last time” was only 2 days ago. That’s the Internet for you. Life at the speed of light.) Google has spidered and computed more things. So, here is what we see, now. It is a more complete picture:

- Robin Hanson is still credited (but not the other pioneer, NewsFutures), and Justin Wolfers pops up;

- The concepts of “prediction markets” (plural, as opposed to singular, last time), “collective intelligence” and “derivative markets” (I would prefer “event derivatives” or “event derivative markets”) are now, in all logic, part of the mix. Maybe “forecasting” and “predictions” will be added, later on.

Fascinating. Feel free to publish a comment, just below, if you bet that another concept will be added on the Google Wonder Wheel for “collective forecasting” in the future. Bets are open.