Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
Video by our good friend, Andrew Goldberg —who, unlike Wiser Than The Crowd, is in the open.
Tell me in the comments whether his video has value for you. If yes, then I might re-publish it daily. Or let Andrew post it himself. Let me know whether that sounds like a good idea. Give Andrew some feedback about how to improve his output.
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Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.Max Keiser on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
Jason Ruspini on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
Paul Hewitt on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
Chris F. Masse on We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.Chris F. Masse on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Chris F. Masse on “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”
Niall O'Connor on We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.Niall O'Connor on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Niall O'Connor on “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”
Not sure why he quotes the last traded price when it is outside the current bid/offer.
I would quote the last price, too.
Love the concept, well done for first episode, hope to see more.
I agree with Jason. Actually, I’ve long wondered if for illiquid markets it doesn’t make sense to always quote midpoint of bid/ask, as well as have charts over time reflect that, capturing changing sentiment of traders even when no trades take place. Is there a term for this other than “bid/ask avg”? And of course there are details — should no bid or ask assume 0 and 100 respectively? Should last be taken into account with some kind of decay?