Monthly Archives: May 2009

Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

LAT: Sonia Sotomayor is Obama’s Supreme Court nominee. Via our good friend Daniel Horowitz Previously: Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

NewsFutures OKays “collective forecasting”.

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Actually, Emile Servan-Schreiber has been using this term (“collecting forecasting“) for years. (Spot it under “competitive forecasting”.) Emile, you’re a true pionneer, here. Congrats.

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Intrade Meltdown

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Guest Author

Intrade has been experiencing a technical meltdown over the last 8 hours. The site was completely down from about 7pm EST Monday to 3am EST Tuesday. When it came back up there was no email explanation, no forum explanation. Those … Continue reading →

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What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

In honor of our good doctor Robin Hanson, I am creating a new category, “collective forecasting“ —and the “forecasting” category becomes “traditional forecasting“, to mark the difference. (Can you sense it, Paul Hewitt?) The prof should take this as a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

What is the etymology of the word forecasting? forecast (v.) c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494. Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting” Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting” – … Continue reading →

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Predicting vs. Forecasting

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Mark Phillips: QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do? ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate. Predicting is when you start making guesses … Continue reading →

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Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman: I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts.  In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened:  that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is … Continue reading →

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Could prediction markets help solve a crime?

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have been asked many times by Kruijs on HubDub to update people about the prediction markets created about moi. So, here it is. But, first, a little background. Since the beginning of this year, I have adopted a new … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Administration, Midas Oracle Predictions | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Let’s create a prediction market…

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

… about whether Prof Panos will make a survey among the Amazon Turks about whether “forecasting” can encompass our information aggregation mechanisms that are driven by traders or else (as opposed to predictive modeling tools driven by experts).

Posted in Humor | Tagged | 2 Comments

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”

Posted on May 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”): THE RIGHT WORD While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments