Monthly Archives: May 2009

If they stole Robin Hanson’s ideas on prediction markets, does it mean that his ideas are good?

Posted on May 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson thinks so. I would agree. What do you, guys, think?

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Are prediction markets really useful to *you*?

Posted on May 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

An open letter to Prof Panos about Midas Oracle: My Dear Honorable Prof Panos, I am no “stupid“. As I stated, Midas Oracle will publish both the good and the bad about prediction markets. The scientific view is indeed that … Continue reading →

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Robin Hanson has bugged us over the last week-end to insist we should use the NewsFutures-coined term “collective forecasting”, and guess what I spot as a tagline on his blog.

Posted on May 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Doc, eat your own dog food, will you. -

Posted in Humor, Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction markets must have sufficient information completeness to accurately predict outcomes with a reasonable degree of certainty.

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Dixit Paul Hewitt. More tomorrow on this.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting | Tagged , | Leave a comment

La patience a ses limites.

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson to MoldBug: Explain yourself clearly or shut up.

Posted in Humor | Tagged , | Leave a comment

What’s next for the Swine Flu (H1N1) alert level: 4 or 6?

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Whats next for the Swine Flu alert level: 4 or 6?

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Even when well calibrated, prediction markets can be useless, nevertheless.

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: The point of this discussion is that prediction markets should be well-calibrated, but this is not a sufficient condition for their usefulness. They must also provide accurate predictions, with relatively tight distributions. The maximum allowable dispersion of the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Robin Hanson has overhauled his (ex-group) blog.

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Overcoming Bias is now a solo blog. (His conspirators are now grouped at Less Wrong.) – His blog is on with a new webhost, and is probably not powered by TypePad anymore —I highly suspect WordPress. – (He should … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

MicroSoft have patented the prediction markets.

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Well, at least, one aspect of the prediction markets. Uniited States Patent Application: CONTINUOUS BETTING INTERFACE TO PREDICTION MARKET Abstract A user participates in trading securities in a prediction market which represent different outcomes of an event, using an interface … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Inventions & Innovations, Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

You Bet: a bad book about BetFair

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

According to somebody who has read the book, the content is “rubbish” and the book is “poorly edited”. According to my source, you won’t learn anything that you already know about BetFair, and the book on the history of The … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, History, Resources - References | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment