Comments on: Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”. http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/29/american-idol-2009-betfair/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/29/american-idol-2009-betfair/#comment-24153 Chris F. Masse Tue, 02 Jun 2009 19:11:44 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14181#comment-24153 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/13/defining-probability-in-prediction-markets/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/prediction-market-efficiency-vs-prediction-market-accuracy/ In both posts, you did *not* report about one expired prediction market. You wrote up an analysis about accuracy. That is what I am trying to explain to you. Somebody has to *report* on whether one expired prediction market was spot on or not ---and that can't be scientific. It is done in a binary way (success/failure), because that is what people are accustomed to. After that, a deeper analysis can be published. http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/13/defining-probability-in-prediction-markets/
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/prediction-market-efficiency-vs-prediction-market-accuracy/

In both posts, you did *not* report about one expired prediction market. You wrote up an analysis about accuracy.

That is what I am trying to explain to you. Somebody has to *report* on whether one expired prediction market was spot on or not —and that can’t be scientific. It is done in a binary way (success/failure), because that is what people are accustomed to.

After that, a deeper analysis can be published.

]]> By: Panos Ipeirotis http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/29/american-idol-2009-betfair/#comment-24152 Panos Ipeirotis Tue, 02 Jun 2009 19:04:04 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14181#comment-24152 My blog articles that you are linking to are about the "failure" of the PM for the NH for Clinton. I also blogged about the Oscar's markets and why "failing to fail is a failure". No historic averages (in fact, I never wrote about historic averages, perhaps I should) My blog articles that you are linking to are about the “failure” of the PM for the NH for Clinton. I also blogged about the Oscar’s markets and why “failing to fail is a failure”. No historic averages (in fact, I never wrote about historic averages, perhaps I should)

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/29/american-idol-2009-betfair/#comment-24146 Chris F. Masse Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:18:16 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14181#comment-24146 You have written about “the historic average of similar markets”. Have you blogged about single, individual expired prediction markets? You have written about “the historic average of similar markets”. Have you blogged about single, individual expired prediction markets?

]]> By: Panos Ipeirotis http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/29/american-idol-2009-betfair/#comment-24143 Panos Ipeirotis Mon, 01 Jun 2009 14:24:41 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14181#comment-24143 Someone does not have a clue on spelling my last name :-) I have written about outcomes of prediction markets and these posts happened to be some of my most popular ones. Someone does not have a clue on spelling my last name :-)

I have written about outcomes of prediction markets and these posts happened to be some of my most popular ones.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/29/american-idol-2009-betfair/#comment-24141 Chris F. Masse Sat, 30 May 2009 09:06:28 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14181#comment-24141 Niall, Reporting on market-generated predictions *before* the event outcome, and reporting on expired prediction markets *after* the event outcome are 2 difficult things, and neither Michael Robb not Panos Iperiotis have the first clue. Not saying that I hold all the keys, though ---but I am learning. P.S.: Your word is insulting. Mike is a young Padawan. Niall,

Reporting on market-generated predictions *before* the event outcome, and reporting on expired prediction markets *after* the event outcome are 2 difficult things, and neither Michael Robb not Panos Iperiotis have the first clue. Not saying that I hold all the keys, though —but I am learning.

P.S.: Your word is insulting. Mike is a young Padawan.

]]> By: Niall O'Connor http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/29/american-idol-2009-betfair/#comment-24140 Niall O'Connor Sat, 30 May 2009 07:39:49 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14181#comment-24140 The result merely indicates that Michael Robb is an idiot, who does not understand how markets work. The result merely indicates that Michael Robb is an idiot, who does not understand how markets work.

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