Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”.

Posted on May 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

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About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
This entry was posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”.

  1. Niall O'Connor says:
    May 30, 2009 at 3:39 AM

    The result merely indicates that Michael Robb is an idiot, who does not understand how markets work.

  2. Chris F. Masse says:
    May 30, 2009 at 4:06 AM

    Niall,

    Reporting on market-generated predictions *before* the event outcome, and reporting on expired prediction markets *after* the event outcome are 2 difficult things, and neither Michael Robb not Panos Iperiotis have the first clue. Not saying that I hold all the keys, though —but I am learning.

    P.S.: Your word is insulting. Mike is a young Padawan.

  3. Panos Ipeirotis says:
    June 1, 2009 at 10:24 AM

    Someone does not have a clue on spelling my last name :-)

    I have written about outcomes of prediction markets and these posts happened to be some of my most popular ones.

  4. Chris F. Masse says:
    June 1, 2009 at 1:18 PM

    You have written about “the historic average of similar markets”. Have you blogged about single, individual expired prediction markets?

  5. Panos Ipeirotis says:
    June 2, 2009 at 3:04 PM

    My blog articles that you are linking to are about the “failure” of the PM for the NH for Clinton. I also blogged about the Oscar’s markets and why “failing to fail is a failure”. No historic averages (in fact, I never wrote about historic averages, perhaps I should)

  6. Chris F. Masse says:
    June 2, 2009 at 3:11 PM

    http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/13/defining-probability-in-prediction-markets/
    http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/14/prediction-market-efficiency-vs-prediction-market-accuracy/

    In both posts, you did *not* report about one expired prediction market. You wrote up an analysis about accuracy.

    That is what I am trying to explain to you. Somebody has to *report* on whether one expired prediction market was spot on or not —and that can’t be scientific. It is done in a binary way (success/failure), because that is what people are accustomed to.

    After that, a deeper analysis can be published.

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