“Just because it takes “time” to perform an operation does not exclude it as a useful tool.”
Collective forecasting can only be generated on the back of traditional forecasting (polls, forecats by experts, etc.). It takes time.

“Was it not you that said the value of prediction markets is in their speed?”
If you read what I said, I was speaking on the comparison prediction markets versus mass media.

“Regarding objectivity, who cares how objective it is, if it concerns the wrong answer?”
Same for many other forecasting techniques, I guess.

“Presumably, “collective forecasting” will be listed as a sub-category of “traditional forecasting”. Where will you put the weather?”

Forecasting =
- traditional forecasting (polls, predictive modeling, etc.)
- collective forecasting (using collective intelligence, information aggregation).
Weather forecasting is part of traditional forecasting. “Traditional” as opposed to using collective intelligence, a new thing, that can be harnessed thanks to the Web —a new thing that maybe you have heard of.

I am looking forward to your blog posts about all that. Don’t hesitate to be libelous.

So, this is the consensus:
” 1. Collective forecasting brings an added accuracy that is microscopic —if any.
2. Collective forecasting brings objectivity —which people but us don’t value.
3. It takes time to perform the information aggregation, which disqualifies collective forecasting as a useful tool”?

Personally, I disagree with all three. Just because it takes “time” to perform an operation does not exclude it as a useful tool. Are we to only pick the low lying fruit? Was it not you that said the value of prediction markets is in their speed (I’m assuming you meant less time)?

Regarding objectivity, who cares how objective it is, if it concerns the wrong answer? Regarding accuracy, I partially agree with you (*given the present state of PM development*), but I believe it is something that can be improved significantly, with adherence to “first principles”.

Presumably, “collective forecasting” will be listed as a sub-category of “traditional forecasting”. Where will you put the weather?