What is the etymology of the word forecasting?
forecast (v.)
c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494.
Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
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THE END RESULT OF THE MEMORIAL DAY FIGHTING OVER TERMINOLOGY:
- Etymology indicates that the word “forecasting” is OK to use as a meaning for “predicting”.
- Predictive modeling expert Andrew Gelman can’t see any difference between the 2 words, and that guy is an expert —Robin Hanson is not, and I am not.
- It is true (as I said from day one) that the word “forecasting” is treated differently than the word “predicting”in the dictionaries. If Robin Hanson had a good pair of eyeglasses, and were humble and modest enough to read dictionaries, he would see that, too.
- However, point #1 and point #2 are more important to moi. (See, abiding forever by point #3 means that the recent past should always govern us. Obviously, wrong. We should free ourselves from the chain of the past and re-invent things, when necessary.)
- Hence, I declare the words “forecasting” and “predicting” as perfectly equivalent —a complete U-turn [*] that will give credence to the untrue rumor that I am “bi-polar”.
- And so, our good doctor Robin Hanson wins the fight (and I lose miserably, the face planted in the dirt, while the prof tramples my corpse with a joyful vengeance), and he is allowed to use the term “collective forecasting” to mean “collective intelligence that predicts”.
- But the discussion is not over (so as to piss off our good friend Mike Linksvayer a bit further). Is there a better term than “collective forecasting”?…
[*] My category “forecasting” is all messed up, now. I used to file there things about predictive modeling and polling, exclusively.
