LAT: Sonia Sotomayor is Obama’s Supreme Court nominee.
Via our good friend Daniel Horowitz
Previously: Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.
Search
Search
In / Out
Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.
This entry was posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics and tagged Barack Obama, InTrade, prediction markets, SCOTUS, Sonia Sotomayor, Supreme Court Of The United States, Supreme Justices, US Supreme Court Of Justice. Bookmark the permalink.
4 Responses to Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Eistein was right…
“I never think of the future. It comes soon enough.”
http://rescomp.stanford.edu/~cheshire/EinsteinQuotes.html
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the the universe.”
I thought that we have iterated many many times that prediction markets that do not fail are not accurate…
Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/28/reporting-scientifically-on-the-expired-prediction-markets-is-no-fun/