Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.

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LAT: Sonia Sotomayor is Obama’s Supreme Court nominee.

justice-sotomayor

Via our good friend Daniel Horowitz

Previously: Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

4 Comments to Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.

  1. May 26, 2009 at 1:44 PM | Permalink

    Eistein was right…

  2. May 26, 2009 at 7:18 PM | Permalink

    “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the the universe.”

    I thought that we have iterated many many times that prediction markets that do not fail are not accurate…

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