Comments on: Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/25/question-to-newsfutures/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/25/question-to-newsfutures/#comment-24108 Chris F. Masse Tue, 26 May 2009 06:50:22 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13927#comment-24108 "When I followed the link to NewsFutures, I didn’t see any abandonment of trading technology." Paul, contrary to you, the information on an official website is *not* my only source of information. People talk to moi. All kinds of people. "They have competitive forecasting, which appears to be a prediction market" I don't think so. “When I followed the link to NewsFutures, I didn’t see any abandonment of trading technology.”

Paul, contrary to you, the information on an official website is *not* my only source of information. People talk to moi. All kinds of people.

“They have competitive forecasting, which appears to be a prediction market”

I don’t think so.

]]> By: Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/25/question-to-newsfutures/#comment-24104 Paul Hewitt Mon, 25 May 2009 21:44:53 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13927#comment-24104 When I followed the link to NewsFutures, I didn't see any abandonment of trading technology. They still have prediction markets for continuous variables. They have competitive forecasting, which appears to be a prediction market with a different payoff function and a different way of expressing the trader's opinion. They seem to be gearing this to companies with fewer traders (or less trading savvy ones). Still, it is a prediction market. The idea Futures is really a poll of ideas, leading to a ranking. This is a totally different thing from prediction markets. Again, this doesn't appear to be a departure from prediction markets. It's more like an ancillary product. Finally, the Impact Matrix appears to represent something that prediction markets will never be good at - very long term outcome predictions. It isn't explained on the site, but I'm guessing this is some form of delphi analysis of complex, long-term issues. I haven't checked CrowdCast's new methodology, yet. When I followed the link to NewsFutures, I didn’t see any abandonment of trading technology. They still have prediction markets for continuous variables. They have competitive forecasting, which appears to be a prediction market with a different payoff function and a different way of expressing the trader’s opinion. They seem to be gearing this to companies with fewer traders (or less trading savvy ones). Still, it is a prediction market. The idea Futures is really a poll of ideas, leading to a ranking. This is a totally different thing from prediction markets. Again, this doesn’t appear to be a departure from prediction markets. It’s more like an ancillary product. Finally, the Impact Matrix appears to represent something that prediction markets will never be good at – very long term outcome predictions. It isn’t explained on the site, but I’m guessing this is some form of delphi analysis of complex, long-term issues. I haven’t checked CrowdCast’s new methodology, yet.

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