Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”):
THE RIGHT WORD
While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to the widest variety of situations. It can mean anything from hazarding a guess (: they predicted he’d never survive the year) to making an astute inference based on facts or statistical evidence (: predict that the Republicans would win the election).
When a meteorologist tells us whether it will rain or snow tomorrow, he or she is said to forecast the weather [*], a word that means predict but is used particularly in the context of weather and other phenomena that cannot be predicted easily by the general public (: statistics forecast an influx of women into the labor force).
Divine and foreshadow mean to suggest the future rather than to predict it, especially by giving or evaluating subtle hints or clues. To divine something is to perceive it through intuition or insight (: to divine in the current economic situation the disaster that lay ahead), while foreshadow can apply to anyone or anything that gives an indication of what is to come (: her abrupt departure that night foreshadowed the breakdown in their relationship).
Foretell, like foreshadow, can refer to the clue rather than the person who gives it and is often used in reference to the past (: evidence that foretold the young girl’s violent end).
Augur means to foreshadow a favorable or unfavorable outcome for something (: the turnout on opening night augured well for the play’s success).
Prophesy connotes either inspired or mystical knowledge of the future and suggests more authoritative wisdom than augur (: a baseball fan for decades, he prophesied the young batter’s rise to stardom).
Although anyone who has inside information or knowledge of signs and symptoms can prognosticate, it is usually a doctor who does so by looking at the symptoms of a disease to predict its future outcome.
[*] So much for the 3 commenters (Paul, Daniel, and Mike) who didn’t get my point about weather forecasting being the most understood form of forecasting —one that is based on predictive modeling, WHICH THE PREDICTION MARKETS (AND THE OTHER NON-TRADING MECHANISMS THAT PREDICT) HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH.
NEXT: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
NEXT: Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
This is getting amusing (somewhat). If I understand your post, you object to the word “forecast”, because it is associated with weather, as in “weather forecast”, and everyone knows this. In the business world, it is exceedingly common to have a business or financial forecast (*never* business prediction). Although, and becoming much more common, you are quite likely to see *predictions* of the demise of a business. Quite frankly, I associate “predictions” with crystal ball gazers, horoscope writers and the like. I’m fine with “forecasting”, “collective forecasting”, maybe even “predictive forecasting”. but I draw the line at “collective, predictive forecasting.” !
Paul,
you can’t change Chris’ mind, he’ll keep hitting the drums until the flies drop dead on the floor. Hell, most people don’t even understand what accuracy is about. Hence, the term prediction.
Hey, I know what we should call them. “Markets en Masse”.
“you object to the word “forecastâ€, because it is associated with weather”
The joke is on you, since you did *not* understand my point.
I said that I object to the word “forecast” because I fear that it is associated with *predictive models* (and that is when weather forecasting came in), which prediction markets et al wanted to differ from.