Could prediction markets help solve a crime?

I have been asked many times by Kruijs on HubDub to update people about the prediction markets created about moi. So, here it is. But, first, a little background. Since the beginning of this year, I have adopted a new stance, as you have seen if you follow Midas Oracle. I am much more skeptical of the claims made by the prediction market people, and I do everything I can to pierce the hype bubble. As you understand, some people who are making a living on surfing on the prediction market hype are not that happy about what I write here. I have been the target of:

1. an EPM software provider (who tried to hide and to pin it on another EPM software provider);
2. an EPM conference organizer (who performed a legal hoax, which lead to the “regrets” episode).

The field of prediction markets comprises both public prediction markets and enterprise prediction markets. The public prediction markets are interesting. They provide objectivity to the public. (And the real-money prediction markets are self sustainable.) However, the jury is still out when it comes to the pertinence and utility of private prediction markets. As I blogged many times, many liars and stupid people have infiltrated the EPM field, and the rest of the EPM industry is incapable of making the cleaning. Worse, they have an association where the fox is in charge of the hen house —giving him liberty to perform hoaxes under any pseudonym he chooses.

OK, now, an update on the HubDub prediction markets.

1. I was not behind the websites chrismasse.com and overcomingmidas.com. Anybody who bet on my name will finish in slip, and I will make sure that that’s what happens to anyone who dares.
2. The person who was behind has been identified at 90%. However, that’s not 100%, and so the set of prediction markets will be expired as “not revealed”. However, that does not mean that that person has escaped the justice of the men.

I am not sure whether Kruijs will be satisfied with this note, but that’s all I have to say at this time. As for the question asked in the title, I leave it to the readers.