I like “collective forecasting” , the way it sounds. A lot of your criticism is redundant because we already have the word “collective” in there. Also, take a look at the definitions and you can see why “forecasting” is actually superior to “predictions”.

“Forecast”
1. To estimate or calculate in advance, especially to predict (weather conditions) by analysis of meteorological data. See synonyms at predict.
2. To serve as an advance indication of; foreshadow

Explanation 2 is right on the mark.

“Prediction”
1. The act of predicting.
2. Something foretold or predicted; a prophecy

Now, surely you don’t have to ask yourself where all the hype came from…

“Forecasting” is different than “predicting”:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/25/predict-forecast-dictionary/

Traditional forecasting is done by an expert of a small team of experts. Collective intelligence that predicts is done self selected people, or a large group of non-selected people. They all act as information bees.

Yes, that is completely different. That is why traditional forecasting and prediction markets (or else) was not put in the same “boat”.

“what’s wrong with putting them in the same boat?”
Because of the definition of “forecasting”, which I said that I believe is about mainly predictive modeling.

Now, the big boat is “predicting”, of course. The whole polemique was started because I believe that the word “forecasting” is a sub of “predicting”.

I am following the field of prediction markets (public and private) since 2003. I have always heard the EPM guys saying that there are attacking the corporate planning problem from a completely different standpoint than forecasting, using information aggregation, powered by traders who are not necessarily experts.

That is why I wonder whether it is clever to put EPMs and the non-trading collective intelligence mechanisms under the “forecasting” tent. PMs and CI are very different (I would dare to day, “opposite”).

I gather you are attacking the issue from a *public* prediction market perspective, whereas I am looking at it from the EPM side. Collective forecasting is a reasonable term for EPMs. I should note that *all* prediction markets are “models”, though they are not deterministic.

If we need a separate term for public prediction markets, maybe “crowd crystal-balling for fun and profit” says it all (with smaller words)? (I’m kidding).

Daniel, does the term “forecasting” have a connotation associated with predictive models? That is the damn question.