Aggregating information was not enough to predict the future —this time. Our prediction exchanges won’t issue any statement about it: They will keep it under the rug. When their prediction markets succeed, they brag about it in the media. But when prediction markets fail miserably, it is a deafening silence out there. The “wisdom of crowds” is of interest to them only when chance turns their way. Pitiful.

For those interested, here is what ComScore predicted. But I can’t access the page.

Prediction markets provide the best objective forecast, and they respond faster to new information than the mass media —but slower than the vertical/local media do (since aggregating information takes a little time). I like that, and if you read Midas Oracle, that means you like it too. But it is overall a small benefit. There is no case for running out there and selling $400-a-seat conferences —hyping that prediction markets can run organizations and governments.

NEXT: Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.