Comments on: Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets? http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24120 Chris F. Masse Tue, 26 May 2009 20:37:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24120 "This is *especially* true for a business that involves *accurately* predicting future outcomes!" I sensed the irony. “This is *especially* true for a business that involves *accurately* predicting future outcomes!”

I sensed the irony.

]]> By: Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24117 Paul Hewitt Tue, 26 May 2009 17:40:38 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24117 Actually, though I am an accountant, I was the president of a software company back in the 80s. So, I *really* do know about software programming. My attempt at accountant's humor was not so good, obviously. The point was (humorously) that they should not have announced the launch without *knowing* that it would be ready, on schedule. This is *especially* true for a business that involves *accurately* predicting future outcomes! I was jokingly wondering whether they had actually used one of their products to predict the launch date. P.S. I've posted a couple of new blogs on my site that may be of interest. Actually, though I am an accountant, I was the president of a software company back in the 80s. So, I *really* do know about software programming. My attempt at accountant’s humor was not so good, obviously. The point was (humorously) that they should not have announced the launch without *knowing* that it would be ready, on schedule. This is *especially* true for a business that involves *accurately* predicting future outcomes! I was jokingly wondering whether they had actually used one of their products to predict the launch date.

P.S. I’ve posted a couple of new blogs on my site that may be of interest.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24114 Chris F. Masse Tue, 26 May 2009 15:30:03 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24114 Paul, As an accountant, you never had to deal with computer programmers (or web programmers). The problem is that they are in high demand, and it takes time (and money) to hire a good one. Then, he/she needs a little time to code. CrowdCast was wrong to say they would deliver soon. You always have delays. Paul,

As an accountant, you never had to deal with computer programmers (or web programmers). The problem is that they are in high demand, and it takes time (and money) to hire a good one. Then, he/she needs a little time to code. CrowdCast was wrong to say they would deliver soon. You always have delays.

]]> By: Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24113 Paul Hewitt Tue, 26 May 2009 14:12:14 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24113 May is almost over, yet there has been no launch of CrowdCast's revolutionary new prediction mechanism. I believe it was originally scheduled for April, then May. Didn't they run a prediction market on the expected launch date? Did they use a beta version of the new methodology? The "old" technology? Both? Neither? If not, why not? Maybe it was simply that there wasn't a large enough crowd to predict accurately. At any rate, it doesn't look good when the prediction company is unable to predict the actual launch date. Certainly, I know how difficult it is to predict such things, but perhaps they should have held off announcing the new program until they knew they would be able to deliver. May is almost over, yet there has been no launch of CrowdCast’s revolutionary new prediction mechanism. I believe it was originally scheduled for April, then May. Didn’t they run a prediction market on the expected launch date? Did they use a beta version of the new methodology? The “old” technology? Both? Neither? If not, why not? Maybe it was simply that there wasn’t a large enough crowd to predict accurately. At any rate, it doesn’t look good when the prediction company is unable to predict the actual launch date. Certainly, I know how difficult it is to predict such things, but perhaps they should have held off announcing the new program until they knew they would be able to deliver.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24065 Robin Hanson Fri, 22 May 2009 20:15:55 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24065 Chris, in the context of that discussion I meant "prediction market" to also cover the related collective forecasting mechanisms; I wasn't trying to make a statement on that topic. I have said many times that the main gain is from collecting forecast track records, and that the other differences are less important. Those other differences are not completely unimportant, however. Chris, in the context of that discussion I meant “prediction market” to also cover the related collective forecasting mechanisms; I wasn’t trying to make a statement on that topic. I have said many times that the main gain is from collecting forecast track records, and that the other differences are less important. Those other differences are not completely unimportant, however.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24064 Chris F. Masse Fri, 22 May 2009 13:22:00 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24064 It can be said that NewsFutures and CrowdCast, who once were focused on EPMs, are now mainly proposing non-trading mechanisms to their corporate customers. EPMs remain of course on the shelves, but it is not what is put forward under the nose of the prospects and customers. It can be said that NewsFutures and CrowdCast, who once were focused on EPMs, are now mainly proposing non-trading mechanisms to their corporate customers. EPMs remain of course on the shelves, but it is not what is put forward under the nose of the prospects and customers.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24063 Chris F. Masse Fri, 22 May 2009 13:15:21 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24063 Emile, I have corrected the text. Thanks. Emile, I have corrected the text. Thanks.

]]> By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/22/enterprise-prediction-markets-decision-aid-markets/#comment-24062 Emile Servan-Schreiber Fri, 22 May 2009 11:40:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13871#comment-24062 NewsFutures has <b>absolutely not</b> decided to stop selling EPM SaaS to customers. Our position is that a variety of tools and approaches are needed to deal efficiently with a variety of business forecasting problems and contexts. One-size-fits-all doesn't work. PM is one tool among many, sometimes the best one to use, often not. A vendor who proposes only one tool/approach, whether PM or something else, is unlikely to deliver the right solution most of the time. NewsFutures has absolutely not decided to stop selling EPM SaaS to customers. Our position is that a variety of tools and approaches are needed to deal efficiently with a variety of business forecasting problems and contexts. One-size-fits-all doesn’t work. PM is one tool among many, sometimes the best one to use, often not. A vendor who proposes only one tool/approach, whether PM or something else, is unlikely to deliver the right solution most of the time.

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