There is here one extremely popular Twitter application for talking online about stocks. Maybe, one prediction market startup will apply the same concept to prediction markets.
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I tried StockTwits but was unimpressed because of the lack of analysis, or even useful pithy observations. Most of it was noise in the form of Joe Trader reporting his latest FAS or FAZ trade with no justification.
Actually the problem was that people were trying to use it as a prediction registry (look how smart I am.. I bought it here, sold it there..), but I don’t need to see an intraday stream of five thousand trade reports. Maybe if it did actually function as a prediction registry with scoring (and filtering by score) that would be useful.
What is your theory for the fact that it attracts masses of people, then?
And would using collective intelligence make it more useful?
Stocktwits specifically drives off of aspirational traders who are fascinated with the idea of making money without much work, perhaps copying others and certainly over-trading. “Collective intelligence” would allow you to filter messages by objective sender expertise.
The MSM has heavily coopted Twitter out of insecurity and mainly as a way to signal technical sophistication.
Simplicity, yes, but often I suspect that is a narrative in retrospect to cover up the role of luck and momentum in these things. Luck and momentum matter greatly.. I cannot explain the success of Uggs boots. Somehow they came to signal cuteness, but are they actually cute? Sometimes it takes genius to gauge peoples exact level of stupidity.
Re: “Collective intelligenceâ€, I mean that the prediction registry (identifying experts) is more interesting than following the crowd. which is easy to do just by observing the price. Being able to manage an expert index might be interesting though.
Thanks, Jason.
Twitter has been hijacked by spammers – what I collectively call the “Twatterati.”
“Twitter has been hijacked by spammers”
They are a lot of spammers, but they don’t bother moi.
http://techdirt.com/articles/20090515/1437004901.shtml