Using prediction markets to selecting the best ideas as opposed to judging accuracy of predictions on measurable outcomes?

Posted on May 1, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I don’t get it, but you can always go there and scan that illogical Motorola EPM story.

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
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5 Responses to Using prediction markets to selecting the best ideas as opposed to judging accuracy of predictions on measurable outcomes?

  1. Medemi says:
    May 1, 2009 at 2:18 PM

    It doesn’t work. You will get all sorts of impractical ideas (even some that have failed more than once in the past) which will grab all the attention. People generally are very poor at judging what works and what doesn’t. Can’t let common sense be the judge of true genius.

  2. Jed Christiansen says:
    May 1, 2009 at 2:29 PM

    I’ve been blogging about this for a year now, and I still belive that prediction markets aren’t the right tool for selecting ideas. While it can be done, there are by far better tools.

    http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/05/05/prediction-markets-using-them-for-innovation-and-ideas/
    http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/08/03/wisdom-of-crowds-and-innovation-its-not-working/

  3. Medemi says:
    May 1, 2009 at 8:21 PM

    You wasted a whole year on this?

    Things tend to get pretty dangerous for companies when managements gets all exited about this. But it’s only Motorola so who cares anyway.

  4. Jed Christiansen says:
    May 2, 2009 at 4:57 AM

    Heh… no, I haven’t “wasted” a year on this. Just that I’ve been writing/blogging about it over the past year as more companies seem to be interested in trying it. :)

    Unfortunately, it’s not just Motorola. A good number of companies have tried (or currently do) the exact same thing.

  5. Chris F. Masse says:
    May 2, 2009 at 5:37 AM

    Thanks for your links to your blog, Jed. It was great posts.

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