The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated.

Gartner ranked the benefits given by software for enterprise prediction markets as “moderate” (look up the 3rd line of the 3rd column):

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Gartner – Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2008 – (PDF file):

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California Institute of Technology economist Charles Plott:

What you’re doing is collecting bits and pieces of information and aggregating it so we can watch it and understand what people know. People picked this up and called it the “wisdom of crowds” and other things, but a lot of that is just hype.

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Previously:

Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.”