Sometimes, the market-generated predictions are a lot better, and sometimes they’re just marginally better. Sometimes, they’re *worse* than the current forecast.

The problem is we don’t know which is going to be true, and that is one of the things we’re trying to determine with prediction markets.

As it stands, apart from generalities, we really don’t know what it takes to make prediction markets *consistently* useful predictors of the future.

Dixit Paul Hewitt.