Comments on: If prediction market advocates are so confident, why aren’t their claims more specific? http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/05/if-prediction-market-advocates-are-confident-why-aren%e2%80%99t-their-claims-more-specific/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/05/if-prediction-market-advocates-are-confident-why-aren%e2%80%99t-their-claims-more-specific/#comment-23825 Chris F. Masse Mon, 06 Apr 2009 07:52:05 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13470#comment-23825 Daniel, if you give out a Ferrari to each of the traders, surely, you will get results. At what cost? Daniel, if you give out a Ferrari to each of the traders, surely, you will get results. At what cost?

]]> By: Daniel Horowitz http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/05/if-prediction-market-advocates-are-confident-why-aren%e2%80%99t-their-claims-more-specific/#comment-23822 Daniel Horowitz Mon, 06 Apr 2009 04:21:24 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13470#comment-23822 More/better incentives = More/better accuracy. More/better incentives = More/better accuracy.

]]> By: Jed Christiansen http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/05/if-prediction-market-advocates-are-confident-why-aren%e2%80%99t-their-claims-more-specific/#comment-23815 Jed Christiansen Sun, 05 Apr 2009 16:50:22 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13470#comment-23815 Thanks for the reply, Chris. I think this is an interesting discussion. In reply to your points above: #1- I think that individual traders do have direct connection with the facts, but only a small subset of the relevant facts. It's like the old parable about the blind men describing the elephant: each knows a part very well, but aggregating the information is tough. But I absolutely believe that a majority of users will have some direct connection with the relevant markets. #2- The Internet was completely different, but it affected various businesses differently. For your local plumber, it's essentially just a new marketing channel. But for a company like Blockbuster (competing with Netflix) it completely upended their business model. But I would argue that we still have many years of changes ahead as businesses and their business models react to how the Internet has changed their business. Just like PM's, it takes some time for companies to understand what a new technology is doing and how to react. #2b/3- Completely agree with you here. Part of the reason I've been talking about this recently is to try and encourage this! #5- It depends. I like the way Emile describes it with the 3 R's: Relevance, Rewards, and Recognition. A company needs to get the right balance of all three. Thanks for the reply, Chris. I think this is an interesting discussion. In reply to your points above:

#1- I think that individual traders do have direct connection with the facts, but only a small subset of the relevant facts. It’s like the old parable about the blind men describing the elephant: each knows a part very well, but aggregating the information is tough. But I absolutely believe that a majority of users will have some direct connection with the relevant markets.

#2- The Internet was completely different, but it affected various businesses differently. For your local plumber, it’s essentially just a new marketing channel. But for a company like Blockbuster (competing with Netflix) it completely upended their business model. But I would argue that we still have many years of changes ahead as businesses and their business models react to how the Internet has changed their business. Just like PM’s, it takes some time for companies to understand what a new technology is doing and how to react.

#2b/3- Completely agree with you here. Part of the reason I’ve been talking about this recently is to try and encourage this!

#5- It depends. I like the way Emile describes it with the 3 R’s: Relevance, Rewards, and Recognition. A company needs to get the right balance of all three.

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