Comments on: If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why aren’t they being used much more widely? http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-27529 Medemi Fri, 08 Jan 2010 03:01:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-27529 Hello again. This thread still hits the top when I google my handle so I thought it would be interesting to give you a final update. Final it will be. - I quit that project voluntarily about 2 months ago. I'm in my 6-month sabbatical now. It's amazing to me that I kept with it for another 6 months. - The project is still ongoing. It's 2010 now. Money is still being wasted. The thinking is that eventually the validation test will fail, and maybe everyone will keep their job (and reputation intact). Who knows. - What do we learn from this? Each to their own, but it couldn't hurt for the non-believers of EPM's to reflect on this story a bit, and consider what a deadly combination politics, divided responsibility, personal motives and bureaucracy can be. Hello again. This thread still hits the top when I google my handle so I thought it would be interesting to give you a final update. Final it will be.
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I quit that project voluntarily about 2 months ago. I’m in my 6-month sabbatical now. It’s amazing to me that I kept with it for another 6 months.
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The project is still ongoing. It’s 2010 now. Money is still being wasted. The thinking is that eventually the validation test will fail, and maybe everyone will keep their job (and reputation intact). Who knows.
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What do we learn from this? Each to their own, but it couldn’t hurt for the non-believers of EPM’s to reflect on this story a bit, and consider what a deadly combination politics, divided responsibility, personal motives and bureaucracy can be.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23987 Medemi Sun, 03 May 2009 11:03:38 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23987 Who would believe it, the result IS relevant. No decision was made because "there is not enough information available". Quite ironic in the context of EPM's. Nobody wants to lose his job over this so a third party will be hired to analyze the situation and create a verdict. Of course, they don't know anything, and judgment day is many many weeks away. This thing (these people) are giving me a nervous breakdown and I'm looking for a VERY LONG holiday when this thing is over. Who would believe it, the result IS relevant.
No decision was made because “there is not enough information available”. Quite ironic in the context of EPM’s. Nobody wants to lose his job over this so a third party will be hired to analyze the situation and create a verdict. Of course, they don’t know anything, and judgment day is many many weeks away.

This thing (these people) are giving me a nervous breakdown and I’m looking for a VERY LONG holiday when this thing is over.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23959 Medemi Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:39:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23959 Ok, thanks. I'm not going to post the result of this debacle because I believe it is irrelevant. The point has been made. Ok, thanks.
I’m not going to post the result of this debacle because I believe it is irrelevant. The point has been made.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23949 Chris F. Masse Mon, 27 Apr 2009 08:02:54 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23949 Not necessarily. You have to ask Google Trends and Google Search Insights for "Medemi" and they will tell you whether this keyword is popular. As for this post, yes it has been read, but is is a recent post, so its very small popularity will drop soon, I guess. Not necessarily.

You have to ask Google Trends and Google Search Insights for “Medemi” and they will tell you whether this keyword is popular.

As for this post, yes it has been read, but is is a recent post, so its very small popularity will drop soon, I guess.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23948 Medemi Mon, 27 Apr 2009 07:10:48 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23948 Today there will be a meeting at the very highest level to decide whether our project will be terminated or not. Total cost so far : €130,000,000 It will be a political decision, rather unfortunate.... again... so anything can happen. Hopefully we will hear the result tomorrow. Chris, I didn't have trouble finding this thread because when I google my chatname this page hits the top with nothing else even close. What does it mean, does it have a lot of readers? Today there will be a meeting at the very highest level to decide whether our project will be terminated or not. Total cost so far : €130,000,000
It will be a political decision, rather unfortunate…. again… so anything can happen.
Hopefully we will hear the result tomorrow.

Chris, I didn’t have trouble finding this thread because when I google my chatname this page hits the top with nothing else even close. What does it mean, does it have a lot of readers?

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23891 Chris F. Masse Tue, 14 Apr 2009 12:13:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23891 The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/13/the-truth-about-enterprise-prediction-markets/ http://torontopm.wordpress.com/2009/04/12/an-analysis-of-hps-real-prediction-markets/ The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/13/the-truth-about-enterprise-prediction-markets/
http://torontopm.wordpress.com/2009/04/12/an-analysis-of-hps-real-prediction-markets/

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23820 Medemi Sun, 05 Apr 2009 21:32:53 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23820 Jed, without giving too much detail (people could be listening) the solution to our problem would (likely) be to install another €32M of hardware, or have one of out suppliers redesign the whole thing (their part). Just to give you an indication of how much money can be saved if you get it right the first time. Jed,

without giving too much detail (people could be listening) the solution to our problem would (likely) be to install another €32M of hardware, or have one of out suppliers redesign the whole thing (their part). Just to give you an indication of how much money can be saved if you get it right the first time.

]]> By: Medemi http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23819 Medemi Sun, 05 Apr 2009 19:34:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23819 Jed, I'm working on a project with close to 300 people, all IT. There must be 10 or so project managers. They have weekly meetings. When you kick off a massive operation like that nobody wants to be the one telling the others "we can't do this, not this way". One of my colleagues once attended such a meeting. He told me it's a bloody competition of who can present the rosiest picture! I'm relatively satisfied with my project manager as he is open to suggestions, and when we push him hard enough he tends to listen to our side of the story. But then we completed our task in time. He used to hate these meetings for the same reason. I know of at least one other project manager who felt the same way, and there must have been more. Somehow (especially during the intial phase) it must be too hard for them (in that setting) to escape the social pressures that appear to be dominating the scene. Jed,

I’m working on a project with close to 300 people, all IT. There must be 10 or so project managers. They have weekly meetings. When you kick off a massive operation like that nobody wants to be the one telling the others “we can’t do this, not this way”.
One of my colleagues once attended such a meeting. He told me it’s a bloody competition of who can present the rosiest picture!

I’m relatively satisfied with my project manager as he is open to suggestions, and when we push him hard enough he tends to listen to our side of the story. But then we completed our task in time. He used to hate these meetings for the same reason. I know of at least one other project manager who felt the same way, and there must have been more. Somehow (especially during the intial phase) it must be too hard for them (in that setting) to escape the social pressures that appear to be dominating the scene.

]]> By: Jed Christiansen http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23816 Jed Christiansen Sun, 05 Apr 2009 16:53:13 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23816 Medemi, I was speaking to a senior bank manager a while back that was very keen on better understanding this; he figured that only one of his project managers was regularly telling him an unvarnished truth. Then it's just a matter of trying to assess the value of knowing the truth earlier! Medemi,

I was speaking to a senior bank manager a while back that was very keen on better understanding this; he figured that only one of his project managers was regularly telling him an unvarnished truth. Then it’s just a matter of trying to assess the value of knowing the truth earlier!

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/02/prediction-markets-adoption/#comment-23813 Chris F. Masse Sun, 05 Apr 2009 14:05:22 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13438#comment-23813 Thanks. I have updated the post, and will read your reply. Thanks. I have updated the post, and will read your reply.

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