Monthly Archives: March 2009

Who is behind?

Posted on March 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

IMPORTANT UPDATE REGARDING THE INCIDENT. Somebody did set up a website making a fool of me. Searching who is behind this turned out the IP address of the NewsFutures server —but Emile Servan-Schreiber is as innocent as a lamb because … Continue reading →

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The Gambler

Posted on March 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

A Year in The Life of an Online Gambler. A British blog… about betting and gambling over the Internet.

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Al Roth’s light take on prediction markets

Posted on March 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- History. – Applications. – Enterprise prediction markets, The Economist, and CrowdCast’s answer to The Economist.

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Are (enterprise) prediction markets useful?

Posted on March 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Jed Christiansen’s take. Very interesting.

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“damped polls” —not “dumped polls”, you, blogging idiot…!!!…

Posted on March 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I made a typo in the title of each of my 2 previous blog posts about polls versus prediction markets. (The content of those blog posts featured the correct spelling, fortunately.) My apology. And thanks to the “research scientist” who … Continue reading →

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THE MOST OVERLOOKED DOCUMENT OF 2008

Posted on March 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

COALITION FOR INTERNAL MARKETS’ LETTER TO THE CFTC PDF FILE

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Assessing Prediction Markets 101

Posted on March 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

A crash course by herr professor Panos Ipeirotis: [...] We have two things to measure: a. how much better than random the predictions are “predictive power” (accuracy, loss functions etc etc), and b. how consistent are the confidence metrics for … Continue reading →

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“The luxury of carrying under-performing employees is now a thing of the past.”

Posted on March 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“Sell or get out.”

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Enterprise prediction markets are not a disruptive technology; but merely another means of forecasting.

Posted on March 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

A commenter on Midas Oracle: [...] Take the rose tinted glasses off and look again. The reason Mr Masse has aroused the ire of some hick from the sticks is that he has pointed out of a profound truth; the … Continue reading →

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Prediction Markets & International Relations

Posted on March 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures has published an interesting essay about how prediction markets could be used in foreign affairs. The essay is a bit speculative, of course (that’s the point of the exercise), but, nevertheless, it is a very good … Continue reading →

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