Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive than simply looking to the recent past of flu levels.

Via the ultra-demanding Bo Cowgill:

Predictions from an autoregressive model outperform [flu] predictions based on search volume.

So much for the too-hastily-trumpeted predictive power of Yahoo! and Google. Yet another wisdom-of-crowds hype that ends up down the toilet.

And our research scientist David Pennock will have to find another topic (for instance, prediction markets) to get a Nobel prize. :-D

Previously: – 12 -

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
This entry was posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), The Internet and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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