Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive than simply looking to the recent past of flu levels.

Posted on March 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Via the ultra-demanding Bo Cowgill:

Predictions from an autoregressive model outperform [flu] predictions based on search volume.

So much for the too-hastily-trumpeted predictive power of Yahoo! and Google. Yet another wisdom-of-crowds hype that ends up down the toilet.

And our research scientist David Pennock will have to find another topic (for instance, prediction markets) to get a Nobel prize. :-D

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About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
This entry was posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), The Internet and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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