Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
Via the ultra-demanding Bo Cowgill:
Predictions from an autoregressive model outperform [flu] predictions based on search volume.
So much for the too-hastily-trumpeted predictive power of Yahoo! and Google. Yet another wisdom-of-crowds hype that ends up down the toilet.
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Predicting the Present with Google Trends
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/04/10/predicting-the-present-with-google-trends/