WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker.

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

This clarification from our good doctor David Pennock shows how indispensable this research scientist is to small people like us. :-D Without David Pennock, the field of prediction markets would collapse like a castle of cards. Ha! ha! ha!…

As a blogger, WeatherBill presents a difficulty: How to you categorize it? I fill it in these 4 categories:

  1. insurance (obviously);
  2. finance (because it is hedging);
  3. exchanges (because of what our good doctor Pennock said above, see the title);
  4. betting (because the reverse of hedging is speculation);
  5. UPDATE: I just added “hedging” —so that’s 5 categories now, probably too many. (It probably shows my readers that I am confused… and really need a “research scientist”. Ha! ha! ha! :-D )

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
This entry was posted in Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Hedging & Insurance and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker.

  1. Daniel Horowitz says:
    March 26, 2009 at 6:33 AM

    Insurance is basically a hedge.

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