It is a wonder, therefore, why more companies have not adopted them.
No need to “wonder“.
The Economist listed the hurdles that corporations face when they try out enterprise prediction markets for their internal forecasting. It is not as easy as the advocates of EPMs (Robin Hanson and his fanboys) tell you it is. They lie to you.
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What you’re doing is collecting bits and pieces of information and aggregating it so we can watch it and understand what people know. People picked this up and called it the “wisdom of crowds” and other things, but a lot of that is just hype.
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QUESTION: Will enterprise prediction markets ever really take off?
MY ANSWER: When the media stops giving air time to the economic canaries who hype, when the pseudo prediction market consultants quit charging $400 for a conference that delivers nothing, and, when the professional business forecasters start giving a critical look at the case studies.
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ADDENDUM: Robin Hanson’s wrong answer to Tyler Cowen’s very pertinent questioning.
Tyler vs. Robin on the merits of cryonics (12:23)
Does fiction weaken your grasp of reality? (06:52)
Are economists evil? (12:10)
How to estimate the value of a person’s life (06:04)
Will prediction markets ever really take off? (08:06)
Has fame made Tyler boring? (02:27)
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