Monthly Archives: February 2009

The very last line of the Erikson–Wlezien paper

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – PDF file For now, our results suggest the need for much more caution and less naïve cheerleading about election markets on the part of prediction market advocates. Previously: The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Velocity is such a potent argument. Why don’t we use it more, for Christ’s sake?

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I am re-reading a 2007 scientific article from Region Focus’ Vanessa Sumo: – Ask The Market – Companies are leading the way in the use of prediction markets. The public sector may soon follow. – (PDF) Here is what I … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Wiki Predict

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

http://www.wikipredict.com/ A prediction market game.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Professor Panos Ipeirotis on Prediction Markets

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Defining Probability in Prediction Markets – Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy

Posted in Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Whatever the expectations (whether they will end up being wrong or right), in complicated situations, the prediction markets aggregate them faster than the mass media do.

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That’s my answer to Flubber. What’s yours? Mike, Jason, David, Dave, etc.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Flubber is partially right.

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Backlash against gambling

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- here; – here.

Posted in Betting, Ethics, Gambling | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The InTrade customers fear about the (in)solvency of the Irish banks.

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade CEO John Delaney addresses this problematic. Previously: InTrade-TradeSports’s country is on the brink of insolvency.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Do you have a blog?

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

If yes, you could help by linking to our post: – The truth about prediction markets Thanks. Appreciated. I will make up to you. These bloggers have already linked to it: – Professor Mike Giberson; – Professor Andrew Gelman; – … Continue reading →

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration, Midas Oracle Archives | Tagged , | Leave a comment

I talk about the velocity of the prediction markets… and, all of the sudden, the traffic explodes.

Posted on February 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Google Analytics of Midas Oracle .ORG: – On the other hand, our competitor, the New York Times (which web-hosts Freakonomics), is in bad shape:

Posted in Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment