Monthly Archives: February 2009

Nate Silver’s model vs. InTrade’s prediction markets

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The information is below. However, before that, just a short note. – The real comparison to do would be to compare the prediction markets with a panel of very diverse Oscar predictors. The real question to ask is, “Was forecasting … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), InTrade, Nate Silver, Oscars, Oscars 2009, prediction markets, Predictions | 3 Comments

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

MIT By Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), marketing, prediction markets, Predictions | Leave a comment

InTrade and BetFair make it impossible for me to show you the expired charts on the Oscars 2009.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- UPDATE: Correction. Even though the Oscars 2009 is now a past event (it is midnight time, Pacific Time), InTrade has the prediction markets listed in their live section. Bizarre. They are still open. I wonder whether that means that … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Usability, Market Charting System, Market Expiry, Software | Tagged BetFair, closed contracts, closed prediction markets, expired charts, expired contracts, expired prediction markets, Internet Usability, InTrade, prediction markets, usability | Leave a comment

Soul searching….

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Will overly sensitive hubdub gendarmes repeal their ban on bets based on death?

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged HubDub, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Plus…

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

… the velocity argument will lead to new applications.

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

Velocity + Inaccuracy

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

One bit of criticism about my pamphlet (The Truth About Prediction Markets) goes like this: Velocity without accuracy is dumb. That is not true. Let’s imagine, for the sake of the exercise, that Barack Obama does not pick up Kathleen … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | 9 Comments

The Oscars: What the prediction markets are expecting

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Right-click on the charts, to visit the many prediction markets about the Oscars. – See Wiser Than The Crowd, for some Oscars betting coverage. – BetFair – The Oscars Mike Robb: SlumDog Millionaire is poised to get 7 Oscars. We … Continue reading →