Monthly Archives: February 2009

UK’s Guardian lambasts Mr Crystal Balls Nate Silver.

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Niall O'Connor

“A less-than-brilliant Oscars for Nate Silver, who used his skills as a baseball statistics nerd to turn his politics blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, into the online hit of last year’s election. Silver predicted the presidential outcome with eerie precision, and gamely crunched … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Betbull exits Betting Exchange Space.

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Niall O'Connor

The German and Spanish facing betting company, Betbull Holding SE, has announced that it is withdrawing from the Betting Exchange Business. In a press statement, Betbull Holding SE said that it had taken the decision to cease trading on it’s … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Business, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

You, too, can publish on Midas Oracle —if you wish.

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- The Uniqueness Of Midas Oracle We publish the best mutant ideas. We link out a lot to external resources (including to the blogs of “research scientists”). (And we enjoy art and humor. ) So, come blogging with us.

Posted in Humor, Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Accuracy or Efficiency?

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
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IG-owned HedgeStreet’s new prediction markets

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

New contracts: – Initial Jobless Claims – European Central Bank Rate Announcements – Nonfarm Payrolls – Unemployment Rate HedgeStreet

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

“We nailed all 50 states.”

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“One site that’s crowing today is Hubdub, which hit all six major awards.”

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“I was on betfair nearly everyday, trading on the horses/football etc,”

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“and it can be very addictive.”

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Is Panos’s goal the same as the people’s goal?

Posted on February 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Celebrating such “successes” leads to backfire when the markets end up *not* being correct.

Posted on February 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That is true, Panos, but there is absolutely nothing you can do to prevent the non-academic prediction exchanges to brag about “successes” —“we nailed all 50 states”. Note that, by contrast, the efficiency (velocity) argument does not lead to any … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

http://intradecorporate.blogspot.com/

Posted on February 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

http://intradecorporate.blogspot.com/

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , | 2 Comments