Monthly Archives: February 2009

Prediction markets won’t reverse the arrow of time —they won’t tell us the future.

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Nate Silver has rendered InTrade useless —now, he plans to do the same with the Hollywood Stock Exchange.

Nate Silver Predicts the Winners of the 2009 Oscars. Via Jason Ruspini. -

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

InTrade-TradeSports’s country is on the brink of insolvency.

Irish government faces growing fears of debt default. Fears are growing that Ireland could default on its national debt after the cost to insure against possible losses on loans to the country rose to record highs at the end of … Continue reading

Posted in Finance, The Global Economy | Tagged , | 1 Comment

BetFair’s Mark Davies, the last man standing

Andrew Black: Most of the original [BetFair] team have moved on now. Ed Wray is now Chairman, Mark Davies is still there and I’m still on the board and going in from time to time – I have three [BetFair] … Continue reading

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Will FoxNews retract its story about $30M for the salt marsh harvest mouse?

Will FoxNews retract its story about $30M for the salt marsh harvest mouse?

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The truth about prediction markets

Come to the wonderful world of collective intelligence, wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets!… The sun shines bright, the market-generated predictions are vastly superior to the polls as election predictors, and the track record of the public prediction markets stretches … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 59 Comments

4 miscellaneous web links you can’t afford to ignore

- Max Keiser and Alec Baldwin lecture little Nigel Eccles (of HubDub) on Italian cheese and the US economy. – Auction system in the NFL. – Via prof Mike Giberson from Texas. – Local newspapers are going down the toilets, … Continue reading

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Small interview of BetFair’s Mark Davies

… by our good friends of MajorWager. -

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Wiser Than The Crowd…?…

Wiser Than The Crowd: I’ve been carrying over 1000 contracts of the controversial “-10%GDP.CUM.09*SEE*RULES*” issues. I averaged in beginning when the rules were “clarified,” ending up at an average basis cost of 42.5. Since then, I’ve been selling in dribs … Continue reading

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Google punishes Google Japan by lowering its PageRank to 5.

Amazing. PS: The PageRank of Midas Oracle is 6 / 10 —higher than any other prediction market blog. -

Posted in The Internet | Tagged , , | 2 Comments