Monthly Archives: February 2009

Google recommends CFM and Midas Oracle — not Freakonomics… not Overcoming Whatever… not Odd Head… not Mercury… and certainly not BetFair Predicts.

Posted on February 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Midas Oracle Kudos, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

No comments on the Pennock–Combinatorial blog post, yet.

Posted on February 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Any taker? Jason? Jed? Mike?

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Betting on the Oscars

Posted on February 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets have been spot-on when it comes to picking presidents, but the record is less stellar when it comes to movie stars. Both statements are dead wrong.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , | Leave a comment

InTrade modify depression contract… and mess up again.

Posted on February 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Jay Hancock Calculated Risk See also the comment on “InTrade” at Nate Silver’s blog. Sorry to be late linking to Jay Hancock. I had these bookmarks sitting pretty for a while. Previously: InTrade messed up badly with its prediction market … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Meet Linda Rebrovick, the Consensus Point CEO.

Posted on February 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Linda Rebrovick @ LinkedIn UPDATE: The Consensus Point announcement

Posted in Consulting, People | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

No Copyright

Posted on February 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The person who associated a work with this document has dedicated this work to the Commons by waiving all of his or her rights to the work under copyright law and all related or neighboring legal rights he or she … Continue reading →

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Inkling Markets push trading innovation where Robin Hanson and BetFair stopped.

Posted on February 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- With the Market Scoring Rules and the BetFair Starting Price, the trader chooses both the direction of the bet and the amount wagered. – With the Inkling Markets Quick Trade, the trader just chooses the direction of the bet … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Wrong use of prediction markets

Posted on February 16, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Resolving the ICANN-Proposed TLDs Debate.

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Information Technology | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Business cases and case studies on enterprise prediction markets

Posted on February 16, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Acxiom Using Prediction Markets to Support IT Project Management – by Herbert Remidez and Curtis Joslin – 2009-02-XX Forrester Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – (MO excerpts) – 2008-07-14 Google – (U.S.A.) Using Prediction Markets … Continue reading →

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The market correctly predicted twenty four of the twenty six project milestones (92%). — Acxiom

Posted on February 16, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Was that easy/difficult to predict?

Posted in Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment