Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets:
“Yet to take off,” however, does not equate to “bad idea.”
Adam,
The prediction markets went mainstream in 2003 (with PAM) and in 2004 (with “The Wisdom Of Crowds”). That’ll soon make up for 6 years of exposure under the sunlight. That’s a period long enough for us to be able to assess 80% of the benefits and the problems of the enterprise prediction markets.
If EPMs were such a “good idea”, they would have “taken off”, by now.
Since they haven’t, there are only 2 hypothesis to choose from:
- Using EPMs as a management tool was a “bad idea”.
- Using EPMs as a management tool is still a “good idea”, but thinkers (e.g., Robin Hanson) and practitioners (e.g., Inkling Markets) got it all wrong in their proposed use of EPMs —and another way will be more fruitful.
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UPDATE: Inkling Markets CEO Adam Siegel speaks out on the current state of enterprise prediction markets.
