Comments on: HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.

By: behind-the-enemy-lines.blogspot.com/

behind-the-enemy-lines.blogspot.com/ — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 21:09:05 +0000

* Prediction markets are supposed to report _probabilities_

* It is wrong to expect that _all_ events trading with probability less than 1 will end up being correct.

* Celebrating such “successes” leads to backfire when the markets end up *not* being correct.

* When the markets “fail”, it is lame to remember to bring up the excuse “prices are probabilities”. You have to have a consistent message in the good and bad times.

“But I do wonder how the numbers would stack up if you ran the full 24 awards?”

This is the analysis that I actually wanted to perform to figure out whether there is a longshot-favorite bias in the Oscars markets. But it was too much work to collect the data.

By: behind-the-enemy-lines.blogspot.com/

behind-the-enemy-lines.blogspot.com/ — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 20:53:42 +0000

“Following your logic, then, I think InTrade should have truly shown superiority over all other prediction markets by getting all 6 of the major awards wrong!”

Did you even read the posting?

By: SQLMan

SQLMan — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 15:46:59 +0000

Following your logic, then, I think InTrade should have truly shown superiority over all other prediction markets by getting all 6 of the major awards wrong!

This is truly an astounding piece of good news! Just think: under your paradigm, mediocrity is to be rewarded, while success will be penalized! I can’t wait to share what I’ve learned here with my poker pals; I don’t know that I’ll be able to convince them of your to-win-is-to-lose-and-to-lose-is-to-win strategy, but it’s worth a shot, no?

(Are you familiar with the Superman comics? If not, you might want to take a look at Bizzaro World, a cubical planet obviously modeled on math very similar to yours.)

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 15:11:28 +0000

Predictions that are too good to be true? – Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/02/predictions-tha.html

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 14:00:57 +0000

“I do wonder how the numbers would stack up if you ran the full 24 awards?”

Well, whatever analysis you want to do, do it, and publish about it.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 13:56:46 +0000

OK, Jenni. Thanks.

By: Jenni Peterson

Jenni Peterson — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 11:58:15 +0000

Actually I was comparing the *argument* to flipping coins, not our markets. I think my point was that it was a bad premise to start with… but triathematician addressed it more mathematically.

But I do wonder how the numbers would stack up if you ran the full 24 awards?

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:02:23 +0000

- Once your first comment is approved on Midas Oracle, all your further comments are published automatically without any need to get approval from the administrator (moi).

- However, when the commenter uses his/her OpenID (as Panos does), it seems that I have to approve the comment manually, each time. It is not a problem for moi, but I just wanted to jot down that note so that Panos understands why his comments are “held in moderation” each time. I will investigate the issue, but I don’t think I can do something about it. I will try to approve Panos’ comments ASAP. Sorry for the inconvenience, Panos.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 08:48:49 +0000

“your article brags about how accurate hubdub is, and then you analogize its picks to flipping a coin.”

You score a point, Daniel.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 08:17:21 +0000

Jenni, whatever the cause in the end, it was fun to listen to some hypothesis.