Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
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Paul Hewitt on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform
Chris F. Masse on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform
Jason Ruspini on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.Jason Ruspini on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Paul Hewitt on The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care ReformChris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Paul Hewitt on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
Criticism of this stats analysis:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/23/hubdub-takes-home-the-gold-at-the-oscars/#comment-23480
Predictions that are too good to be true? – Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/02/predictions-tha.html