“Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.”

“If they are not and you get them all correctly, then the markets have biases and are NOT accurate.”

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
This entry was posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to “Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.”

  1. Predictions that are too good to be true? – Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

    http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/02/predictions-tha.html

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