A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

How come HubDub managed to get it right, when all the major prediction exchanges (BetFair, HSX, InTrade, NewsFutures, and even Nate Silver) all saw Mickey Rourke?

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About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
This entry was posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma

  1. Daniel Horowitz says:
    February 23, 2009 at 2:03 PM

    Nate’s models only rely on past statistics. He does not account for cognitive biases (known and unknown) that may be affecting the outcome. He readily admits this
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/02/some-post-oscars-thoughts-on.html

    Many people discussed biases which would lead to a Penn victory, and if there were enough incentive, I am confident the markets would have been more accurate.

  2. Jenni Peterson says:
    February 23, 2009 at 2:06 PM

    That’s easy. They followed my excellent predictions :)

  4. Chris F. Masse says:
    February 23, 2009 at 3:03 PM

    Daniel, for Christmas, get yourself a Gravatar.
    http://www.gravatar.com/

  5. Chris F. Masse says:
    February 23, 2009 at 4:39 PM

    Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough. If they are not and you get them all correctly, then the markets have biases and are NOT accurate.

    http://behind-the-enemy-lines.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-failing-to-fail-is-failure.html

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