What is a prediction market? — Definitions & Explainers

Listing of explainers on prediction markets:

• Yahoo! Answers
  • “prediction markets” — “prediction market”
• Google Answers — This service has been decommissioned.
  • “prediction markets” — “prediction market”
• WikiBooks — WikiBooks – (English) — Search for “prediction markets”
• WikiNews — WikiNews – (English) — Search for “prediction markets”
• Wikipedia — Wikipedia – (English) — Prediction Markets — Betting Exchanges — Derivatives — The Wisdom Of Crowds — Collective Intelligence — Forecasting
• Handbook on Collective Intelligence – by MIT CCI

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• Midas Oracle
  • Explainer on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • List of explainers on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • “Explainers” post category – at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • Prediction Market Science – at Midas Oracle .ORG
  • Prediction Markets Timeline – at Midas Oracle .ORG
• Robin Hanson
  • Idea Futures (not updated) — Futarchy — The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive – by Robin Hanson
  • Prediction Markets Definitions – by Robin Hanson – 2006-11-21
  • The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2007-09-05
  • The concept of Info Value – by Robin Hanson - 2008-01-14
• David Pennock
  • Implementing Hanson’s Market Maker – by David Pennock – 2006-10-30
  • Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions – by David Pennock - 2006-12-26
  • Does Wisdom Require Markets? – by David Pennock – 2007-01-19
  • How and When to Listen to the Crowd – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
  • Computational aspects of prediction markets – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
  • The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming – by David Pennock – 2008-02-19
  • What is (and what good is) a combinatorial prediction market? – by David Pennock – 2008-12-22
• Panos Ipeirotis
  • Defining Probability in Prediction Markets – by Panos Ipeirotis - 2008-01-13
  • Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy – by Panos Ipeirotis – 2008-01-14
• Chris Hibbert
  • PM Intro: Basic Formats – [simple double auctions] – by Chris Hibbert – 2005-12-30
  • PMs with Open-Ended Prices – [markets with open-ended prices] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-01-05
  • Looking at Both Sides – [the symmetry of complementary purchases] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-17
  • Market Design: Book and Market Maker – [how to integrate an order book with an automated market maker] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-28
  • Increasing Liquidity in Multi-Outcome Claims – [the mechanics of multi-outcome markets] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-07-19
  • Continuous Outcomes: Bands, Ladders, and Scaled Claims – [predicting the value of a continuous variable] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
  • Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
  • Conditional and Combinatorial Betting – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-03-06
  • Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-09-10
• New York Times
  • The History of Prediction Markets – by the New York Times – 2007-11-04
• BBC News
  • How does a betting exchange work? How does BetFair work? – by BBC News – 2007-12-07
• Forrester
  • Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – by Forrester – 2007-07-14
• James Surowiecki
  • The Wisdom Of Crowds – by James Surowiecki – 2005-xx-xx

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Are you aware of any/some explainer(s) out there not listed above? If yes, please e-mail me. Thanks. Appreciated. Will make up to you.
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