Comments on: Super Bowl XLIII – 2009 http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/02/12771/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Mon, 22 Mar 2010 06:35:40 -0400 hourly 1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/02/12771/#comment-23296 Chris F. Masse Mon, 02 Feb 2009 15:46:29 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12771#comment-23296 Thanks for the elaboration, Barry. Let's see whether someone comments on that. Thanks for the elaboration, Barry. Let’s see whether someone comments on that.

]]> By: Barry0 http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/02/12771/#comment-23295 Barry0 Mon, 02 Feb 2009 14:41:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12771#comment-23295 If the teams are knocked out of the competition (or mathematically have no chance) then thats going to improve the probability of the other remaining teams. I.e. 8 equal teams would have a 12.5%, 4 get knocked out and the remaining 4 would jump to 25%, 2 more and its 50/50%. The probability of the Steelers in the latter part of the graph jump from 20% to 40% to 70%(80%) nearly doubling. Important information in the graph, the ranges of 19-21% and 39-41% etc, is smoothed out and would be where "the masses" affect the price. The final 2 teams jump up in the last week, but if the graph was somewhat normalised to take out the knockout effect, it might be easier to see if the Cardinals improved their % (24 to 30) while Steelers (80 to 70) went down. If the teams are knocked out of the competition (or mathematically have no chance) then thats going to improve the probability of the other remaining teams. I.e. 8 equal teams would have a 12.5%, 4 get knocked out and the remaining 4 would jump to 25%, 2 more and its 50/50%.

The probability of the Steelers in the latter part of the graph jump from 20% to 40% to 70%(80%) nearly doubling. Important information in the graph, the ranges of 19-21% and 39-41% etc, is smoothed out and would be where “the masses” affect the price.

The final 2 teams jump up in the last week, but if the graph was somewhat normalised to take out the knockout effect, it might be easier to see if the Cardinals improved their % (24 to 30) while Steelers (80 to 70) went down.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/02/12771/#comment-23294 Chris F. Masse Mon, 02 Feb 2009 11:18:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12771#comment-23294 Barry, explain more your question. I took that chart from BetFairPredicts.com, because BetFair.com don't allow us to take expired charts. Barry, explain more your question.
I took that chart from BetFairPredicts.com, because BetFair.com don’t allow us to take expired charts.

]]> By: Barry0 http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/02/02/12771/#comment-23293 Barry0 Mon, 02 Feb 2009 11:11:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12771#comment-23293 Is this a knockout comp? The graph looks too mathematical to be anything else. Is this a knockout comp? The graph looks too mathematical to be anything else.

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