Monthly Archives: January 2009

Max Keiser’s The Oracle #3 — BBC World News

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Posted in Entertainment, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Midas Oracle is an ubiquitous addiction.

The San Francisco conference speakers frantically download our frontpage to get the latest, once their 10 minutes on the podium are over. Here’s our web analytics, this morning (Pacific Time): – - The final number will probably be 3 or … Continue reading

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The hype is over. The party is over. — Part II

Since the 2008 US presidential election, no more posts on prediction markets at Freakonomics. Previously: Part I -

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

2010 US Elections

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Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The hype is over. The party is over.

With respect to the 2008 US presidential elections, the prediction markets just mirrored the polls (and took a losing bet on Missouri). In hindsight, most of the media coverage about prediction markets prior to November 4, 2008, was pure hype … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), History, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Wikipedia versus Britannica

If you are interested in Wikipedia, and have 5 minutes, I highly recommend that you read what the president of the Britannica Encyclopedia says about Wikipedia. It’s all sour grapes from his part, but, read it, it is insightful. -

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Baseball, then politics…

Which field could Nate Silver attack next? -

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InTrade messed up badly with its prediction market on the likelihood of an economic depression.

The criticism first appeared on the InTrade forum, but John Delaney ignored them. Then, it spreads on the Blogosphere. InTrade has been ridiculed for setting up illogical contracts. InTrade has just issued a correction. Once again, we see a lack … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Erik Snowberg on the prediction markets about the 2008 US presidential elections

Andy Eggers: So to sum up, I liked the use of prediction markets to estimate the conditional general election probability for a candidate at a point in time, and I think it’s worth getting some estimates of how particular events … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

OneSeason.com

TechCrunch VentureBeat Previously -

Posted in Betting, Entertainment, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged | Leave a comment