One thought on “The hype is over. The party is over. – Part II”
The failure of the financial system also contributed greatly to this skepticism, but if you are selling these markets short here, you’re probably not doing so at good prices.
Also markets are going to tend to have more error in electoral situations where there are a lot of longshot states, which is what happened this year. We can say with some confidence that if the race had been closer, markets would have scored better in terms of relative error.
The failure of the financial system also contributed greatly to this skepticism, but if you are selling these markets short here, you’re probably not doing so at good prices.
Also markets are going to tend to have more error in electoral situations where there are a lot of longshot states, which is what happened this year. We can say with some confidence that if the race had been closer, markets would have scored better in terms of relative error.