Comments on: Robin Hanson has convinced Concensus Point to support combinatorial prediction markets. http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/21/combinatorial-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:02:14 -0400 hourly 1 By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/21/combinatorial-prediction-markets/#comment-23373 Jason Ruspini Mon, 16 Feb 2009 18:15:56 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12665#comment-23373 I meant that combinatorial markets might be more immediately helpful in the corporate PM context. Intrade's interface could be better, but it's good enough that I don't see how it's more of an issue than the legal/regulatory problems. With Betfair, it has to be more of an interface issue, though just in terms of usability, not the lack of combinatorial markets. I meant that combinatorial markets might be more immediately helpful in the corporate PM context. Intrade’s interface could be better, but it’s good enough that I don’t see how it’s more of an issue than the legal/regulatory problems. With Betfair, it has to be more of an interface issue, though just in terms of usability, not the lack of combinatorial markets.

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/21/combinatorial-prediction-markets/#comment-23364 Mike Linksvayer Mon, 16 Feb 2009 08:21:11 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12665#comment-23364 Jason, I don't follow the caveat of "in the exchange context" -- what is the non-exchange context, in particular for combinatorial markets, which require something to coordinate the combinatorial bets, whether that something is called an exchange or not. Jason, I don’t follow the caveat of “in the exchange context” — what is the non-exchange context, in particular for combinatorial markets, which require something to coordinate the combinatorial bets, whether that something is called an exchange or not.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/21/combinatorial-prediction-markets/#comment-23344 Chris F. Masse Sat, 14 Feb 2009 20:36:14 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12665#comment-23344 "Intrade-style prediction markets have not taken off in countries where they are legal" BetFair do not offer these contracts, but they could. Then the British media would pick up them, and they would take off. It is a question of offer. - I agree with Mike that prediction exchanges could offer a better technology. Look the effort that HubDub deployed. It has paid off. It is now the biggest play-money exchange behind HSX. “Intrade-style prediction markets have not taken off in countries where they are legal”
BetFair do not offer these contracts, but they could. Then the British media would pick up them, and they would take off. It is a question of offer.
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I agree with Mike that prediction exchanges could offer a better technology. Look the effort that HubDub deployed. It has paid off. It is now the biggest play-money exchange behind HSX.

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/21/combinatorial-prediction-markets/#comment-23341 Jason Ruspini Sat, 14 Feb 2009 17:54:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12665#comment-23341 While it is true that Intrade-style prediction markets have not taken off in countries where they are legal, and combinatorial markets will probably be the most valuable ones at some point, I don't think there is a lot of evidence for that claim in the exchange context, Mike. While it is true that Intrade-style prediction markets have not taken off in countries where they are legal, and combinatorial markets will probably be the most valuable ones at some point, I don’t think there is a lot of evidence for that claim in the exchange context, Mike.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/21/combinatorial-prediction-markets/#comment-23316 Chris F. Masse Sun, 08 Feb 2009 08:49:08 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12665#comment-23316 OK. OK.

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/01/21/combinatorial-prediction-markets/#comment-23313 Mike Linksvayer Sat, 07 Feb 2009 07:20:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12665#comment-23313 Great news (in bold). While I'd prefer a robust open source implementation (not necessarily at odds with "commercial", though that word is ambiguous and could mean "proprietary"), I'm fairly convinced that the primitive technology currently available and implemented by exchanges is a far bigger problem than legal barriers, but that's basically just repeating comments I made at http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/08/prediction-exchange-grid/#comment-517 Great news (in bold).

While I’d prefer a robust open source implementation (not necessarily at odds with “commercial”, though that word is ambiguous and could mean “proprietary”), I’m fairly convinced that the primitive technology currently available and implemented by exchanges is a far bigger problem than legal barriers, but that’s basically just repeating comments I made at http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/01/08/prediction-exchange-grid/#comment-517

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