http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/21/box-office-prediction-markets-dont-work-out-at-the-iowa-electronic-markets/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/21/box-office-prediction-markets-dont-work-out-at-the-iowa-electronic-markets/#comment-23161 Max Keiser Sun, 21 Dec 2008 20:04:10 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12450#comment-23161 IOWA market to imply that they had a Hollywood product before HSX is disingenuous. Furthermore, my results when running the exchange were +/- 5%.  The problem was that studios did not want that information circulating and we know the story from there.  IOWA market to imply that they had a Hollywood product before HSX is disingenuous. Furthermore, my results when running the exchange were +/- 5%.  The problem was that studios did not want that information circulating and we know the story from there. 

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/21/box-office-prediction-markets-dont-work-out-at-the-iowa-electronic-markets/#comment-23160 Medemi Sun, 21 Dec 2008 15:13:56 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12450#comment-23160 Since you're not going to ask... what do we need ?   - Stakes maximized at $2,000 - $3,000. That would provide enough incentive for traders to start researching, do some serious work.  I call them "traders" but a lot of them will in reality be positional players. - No market abuse, no market manipulation, no insider trading (see above). Knowledgeable traders are easy victims, their systems seek value and don't cope well with criminal intent. Most of you wouldn't know because you are not knowledgeable. :-D That's where the CFTC comes in, BTW. - WWA, World Wide Access   For a better future. Since you’re not going to ask… what do we need ?
 
- Stakes maximized at $2,000 – $3,000. That would provide enough incentive for traders to start researching, do some serious work.  I call them “traders” but a lot of them will in reality be positional players.
- No market abuse, no market manipulation, no insider trading (see above). Knowledgeable traders are easy victims, their systems seek value and don’t cope well with criminal intent. Most of you wouldn’t know because you are not knowledgeable.
That’s where the CFTC comes in, BTW.
- WWA, World Wide Access
 
For a better future.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/12/21/box-office-prediction-markets-dont-work-out-at-the-iowa-electronic-markets/#comment-23159 Medemi Sun, 21 Dec 2008 12:09:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=12450#comment-23159 <em>"The real money IEM markets do not improve on the forecasts from the Hollywood Stock Exchange, so financial incentives don't play a big role in obtaining more accurate predictions," Gruca said.</em>   That's a new one. What he means to say is that his pseudo-real-money-pseudo-marketplace doesn't lead to accurate predictions. Under the right circumstances box office returns (one of a few non-sports markets that has recurring events) is exactly the type of market that traders will turn into a science, an artform, given the right conditions.   Which begs the question, what is it people really want ? Operators are only interested in making money, and the Cantor Exchange will fuck up this market faster than you can say "betfair". What do the CFTC want ? What is it Midas Oracle wants ? To "trade" ? To "hedge" ? You don't have a clue IMO. “The real money IEM markets do not improve on the forecasts from the Hollywood Stock Exchange, so financial incentives don’t play a big role in obtaining more accurate predictions,” Gruca said.
 
That’s a new one. What he means to say is that his pseudo-real-money-pseudo-marketplace doesn’t lead to accurate predictions. Under the right circumstances box office returns (one of a few non-sports markets that has recurring events) is exactly the type of market that traders will turn into a science, an artform, given the right conditions.
 
Which begs the question, what is it people really want ? Operators are only interested in making money, and the Cantor Exchange will fuck up this market faster than you can say “betfair”. What do the CFTC want ? What is it Midas Oracle wants ? To “trade” ? To “hedge” ? You don’t have a clue IMO.

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