Contra Alex Kirtland, I believe that the development of play-money prediction exchanges using MSR (like HubDub or AskMarkets), which popularity is now proved, is much more important news than stuff about CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchanges (like HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange), which popularity is uncertain.
Inkling Markets, HubDub and AskMarkets have been techcrunched —that has not been the case for HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange. Practically, that means a great injection of PageRank, hundreds if not thousands of bookmarks, and plenty of new users. That’s not what I call being “overshadowed”.
-
First, I would disagree that being “TechCrunched” is what’s important here. TechCrunch is great for a particular demographic, but not necessarily everyone. Certainly they can drive PageRank, but so can articles in the FT, NYTimes, Reuters, Bloomberg, etc.
I do agree with Alex in the short-term. It is far more interesting to see how real-money movie contracts will trade and succeed (a big unknown) than seeing further development of an already successful algorithm (MSR).
Though I’d like to point out that Askmarkets uses DPM instead of MSR… at least the last time I checked.
“Askmarkets uses DPM instead of MSR”
-
Wrong.
-
Hi, Chris.
Do you know this for sure?
When I was talking with George as he was coding it, he was using the DPM model. (Of course, the differences are subtle and essentially invisible to average users.)
George will announce to the world later on what he has been working on. I shall shut my gob.